realrates.ai
Macro data. Minimum noise.
This site tracks the macro inputs that govern real interest rates — one of the most important prices in any market economy. Six domain pages cover inflation, rates, growth, housing, financial conditions, and labor; the regime quadrant synthesizes them into a single current reading. The aim is to present the data plainly and let it speak for itself.
The regime quadrant joins growth (CFNAI) against inflation (Core PCE Z-score) to place the macro in one of four states. The chart below shows the current position with the 24-month trail behind it. The domain pages farther down decompose the inputs that compose this synthesis.
Inflation
CPI, PPI, and PCE; upstream commodity and monetary signals; long-run context back to 1913.
Rates
TIPS real yields, breakeven inflation, the yield curve, and Fed funds.
Growth
Real GDP, final sales, industrial production, retail sales, CFNAI, and bank credit.
Housing
Mortgage rates and spread, permits and starts, months of supply, and the Case-Shiller index.
Financial
The NFCI financial conditions index, credit spreads, and the Fed balance sheet.
Labor
Payrolls, unemployment, jobless claims, labor force participation, wages, and quits.
Trend vs Baseline
A retrospective on the 2021–2022 inflation episode. Log-linear regressions against the pre-pandemic trend plus filter-based decomposition of the price level.
Regime Returns
Historical asset returns conditional on regime, plus a trajectory and current-analogs view.
Methodology, data sources, and the full FRED series list are documented on the About page.