Inflation
Consumer price data from FRED, measured across all items, goods, and services. Charts move from the most current signals down to longer-run decomposition.
CPI Index Level (2016–Present)
Raw CPI index value for all urban consumers (1982–84 = 100), showing the cumulative level of prices since 2016.
Year-over-Year % Change
12-month percent change in CPI all items, goods, and services — the standard headline inflation measure.
6-Month Annualized Rate
The 6-month change annualized — a higher-frequency signal that tends to lead the year-over-year figure at turning points. Last 5 years shown.
Year-over-Year % Change (2000–Present)
The same year-over-year series from 2000, providing context across the post-dot-com, GFC, and post-pandemic cycles.
Year-over-Year % Change (Full History)
CPI inflation back to 1913 — encompassing both World Wars, the Great Depression, and the 1970s stagflation episode.
Year-over-Year % Change (13-Month Rolling Window)
An alternative YoY calculation using a 13-month rolling window, which smooths seasonal effects slightly differently than the standard 12-month measure.
Multiplicative Seasonal Decomposition
CPI broken into its observed, trend, seasonal, and residual components using multiplicative decomposition — separating the calendar rhythm from the underlying price signal.
Decomposition Residuals (1960–Present)
What remains after removing trend and seasonal components — large residuals correspond to supply shocks, policy discontinuities, and structural breaks.